| |
Although the exact architecture of the proposed NMD system is not
yet finalized, its general shape is clear, and the components of
the system have been chosen. The system will use ground-based interceptors
topped with an Exo-atmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) that is designed
to destroy the incoming warhead by colliding with it at high speed.
This collision would take place above the atmosphere, when the warhead
is in the mid-course of its trajectory.
The launch of an attacking missile would first be detected by US
early warning satellites. The existing satellites, known as DSP
(Defense Support Program) satellites, use infrared sensors to detect
the hot plume of a missile booster in the early stage of its flight.
Beginning in 2004, the DSP satellites will be replaced by a new
system of early warning satellites known as SBIRS-high (Space-Based
Infrared System--high-earth orbit), which will also use infrared
sensors to detect missile plumes but have improved capabilities.
The data from the early warning satellites would be fed to the NMD
Battle Management Center, to be located at Cheyenne Mountain in
Colorado.
Once the booster finishes burning, the NMD system would use different
sensors to detect the missile and any objects it releases, to track
these objects accurately enough to guide the interceptors, and to
discriminate the real warhead from decoys or other false targets.
These sensors include five existing early-warning radars, in Massachusetts,
California, central Alaska, Greenland, and Britain, which will be
upgraded to give them the ability to track targets accurately enough
to guide interceptors. In addition, new X-band radars designed specifically
for NMD and with much greater discrimination capabilities will be
deployed. These ground-based radars will be supplemented by a space-based
system of roughly 24 SBIRS-low (Space-Based Infrared System--low-earth
orbit) missile-tracking satellites that are designed to provide
track data accurate enough to guide interceptors without assistance
from other sensors.
At some point in this process, the system must discriminate the
actual warhead from the other objects. Otherwise, the NMD system--with
a limited number of interceptors--would risk simply running out
of interceptors if it attempted to fire at all the objects. Because
the NMD interceptors are designed to intercept their targets above
the atmosphere, where there is no air resistance and where lightweight
objects travel on the same trajectory as a heavy warhead, the system
would be particularly vulnerable to countermeasures that use numerous
lightweight decoys.
The NMD Battle Management Center would integrate the information
from the various sensors and decide which objects the system should
try to intercept. The NMD system would then launch interceptors
and guide them towards their targets. An In-Flight Interceptor Communications
Systems (IFICS), which will consist of several ground stations deployed
at forward locations, would relay communications from the battle-management
center to interceptors that have flown over the horizon.
As each interceptor nears its assigned target, it would release
the EKV, which will use infrared and visible light sensors to detect
the target and attempt to discriminate it from decoys or other false
targets. Finally, the EKV would home on the target and use thruster
rockets to steer itself into the target.
To increase its odds of success, the NMD system would likely fire
several interceptors at each target. To conserve interceptors, if
time permits, the defense would use a shoot-look-shoot strategy,
in which one or more interceptors are fired at the target, and after
observing the results of the intercept attempts, additional interceptors
are fired if necessary. Current plans reportedly call for firing
four interceptors at each target.
The United States plans to build the NMD in three stages, with the
capability of the system designed to increase in each stage. The
first system configuration--dubbed the "capability-1"
or "C-1" system--is designed to defend against an attack
of a "few, simple" warheads. This initial system would
be augmented to provide a "capability-2" or "C-2"
system, designed to defend against a "few, complex" warheads.
The stated goal of the NMD program is to deploy a "capability-3"
or "C-3" system, designed to defend against "many,
complex" warheads. The term "few" refers to five
or fewer warheads. The C-3 System is designed to be compatible with
further expansions, such as more interceptors, more interceptor
sites, and/or space-based lasers (a small R&D program on space-based
lasers is ongoing).
The initial site will be either Grand Forks, North Dakota or central
Alaska. The site not chosen for initial deployment would likely
be used as a second site for the C-3 system. The Clinton administration
has indicated it is leaning strongly towards an initial deployment
in Alaska.
The exoatmospheric kill vehicle is the star of the Clinton plan,
a 130-pound wonder just 54 inches long. It is made by Raytheon at
a plant in Tucson. In space, it would guide itself toward the target,
its tiny computer analyzing sensor readings and firing thrusters.
Its big challenge is to disregard the decoys amid the nuclear warheads,
which the sensor tracks through their heat rays and sees as twinkling
points of light, like stars.
Zipping along at about two miles per second, the kill vehicle is
to slam into the nuclear warhead in space and demolish it by force
of impact.
Antimissile designers praise the kill vehicle as the apex of miniaturization
and accuracy. By contrast, they say, the world's first successful
hit-to-kill interceptor, in 1984, had to unfurl a 15-foot-wide steel
umbrella to raise the odds of collision.
Donald R. Baucom, an antimissile historian at the Pentagon, said
the new kill vehicle's deadly agility is rooted in its miniaturized
parts and light weight -- pounds versus earlier tons. So firings
of its four small thrusters produce fast maneuvers.
Still, even its staunchest backers acknowledge that the kill vehicle
is blind to enemy warheads for most of its flight. Raytheon, its
maker, says it can pick up the telltale heat emanations of targets
only in the last 100 or so seconds before impact.
So the weapon must still rely on radars and satellites to find its
quarry. The needed helpers, detailed in April in a Congressional
Budget Office report, and in interviews with its author, Geoffrey
Forden, include these:
 |
Early-warning
radars. Five existing ones would be improved and a new one built
in Asia to help alert the force of interceptor missiles of enemy
attack. |
 |
High-resolution
radars. These can better resolve targets in space to aid tracking,
eliminate decoys and assess whether targeted warheads have been
destroyed. Nine would be built. |
 |
Missile-tracking
satellites. These detect heat from newly launched missiles and
can help estimate flight paths. In time, existing ones would
be supplemented by five new ones, all in high orbits. |
 |
Warhead-tracking
satellites. From low orbits, 24 of these new spacecraft would
aid the hunt for warheads and decoys. |
 |
Command
centers. The main one at Cheyenne Mountain, Colo., a bunker
hewn out of solid rock, would link all the data, and its officers
would fight the defensive war. |
 |
In-flight
relays. On the ground, radio transmitters would send navigational
signals to missile interceptors heading for battle. |
The goal of this network
is not only to aid kill vehicles but to push the defensive battle
as close as possible to enemy territory so as to give military officers
time to fire more than one interceptor at a specific warhead, raising
the odds of success.
The tactic is known as shoot-look-shoot. In theory, antimissile
officials say, three or more hits might be attempted against a given
warhead.
General Kadish, director of the Pentagon's Ballistic Missile Defense
Organization, told Congress in February that if interceptors are
80 percent dependable, two tries will provide 96 percent confidence
and three will give 99 percent assurance of a successful kill.
The anticipated power of the weapon system is a state secret. But
documents that the State Department gave Moscow in January said
the full system would be able to destroy up to 50 enemy warheads.
From:
Union of Concerned Scientists Fact Sheet and
A Missile Defense With Limits: The ABC's of the Clinton Plan
|